Titre :
|
Using logistic regression modeling to predict sexual recidivism: the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-3 (MnSOST-3) (2012)
|
Auteurs :
|
Grant DUWE, Auteur ;
Pamela J. FRESKE, Auteur
|
Type de document :
|
Article : texte imprimé
|
Dans :
|
Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment (Vol. 24 - N° 4, August 2012)
|
Article en page(s) :
|
pp. 350-377
|
Langues:
|
Anglais
|
Catégories :
|
AGRESSEUR MAJEUR
AUTEUR DE VIOLENCE SEXUELLE
ECHELLE D'EVALUATION
RECIDIVISME
RISQUE
|
Mots-clés:
|
Echelle actuarielle
;
Evaluation
;
|
Résumé :
|
This study presents the results from efforts to revise the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening ToolRevised (MnSOST-R), one of the most widely used sex offender riskassessment tools. The updated instrument, the MnSOST-3, contains nine individual items, six of which are new. The population for this study consisted of the crossvalidation sample for the MnSOST-R (N = 220) and a contemporary sample of 2,315 sex offenders released from Minnesota prisons between 2003 and 2006. To score and select items for the MnSOST-3, we used predicted probabilities generated from a multiple logistic regression model. We used bootstrap resampling to not only refine our selection of predictors but also internally validate the model. The results indicate the MnSOST-3 has a relatively high level of predictive discrimination, as evidenced by an apparent AUC of .821 and an optimism-corrected AUC of .796. The findings show the MnSOST-3 is well calibrated with actual recidivism rates for all but the highest risk offenders. Although estimating a penalized maximum likelihood model id not improve the overall calibration, the results suggest the MnSOST-3 may still be useful in helping identify high-risk offenders whose sexual recidivism risk exceeds 50%. Results from an interrater reliability assessment indicate the instrument, which is scored in a Microsoft Excel application, has an adequate degree of consistency across raters (ICC = .83 for both consistency and absolute agreement). [Résumé d'éditeur]
|
Article disponible :
|
CRIAVS Franche-Comté
|
Type de document CRIAVS :
|
Article
|
Obtenir le document :
|
Contactez le CRIAVS de votre région
|